The Japanese decision not to press their attack on Guadalcanal despite encountering more American ships than expected was influenced by several key factors:
1. Unexpected Resistance and Reinforcements
When the Japanese launched their Naval Battle of Guadalcanal (November 12–15, 1942), they initially planned to bombard Henderson Field and land reinforcements. However, they were met with unexpectedly strong American naval resistance.
U.S. aircraft from Henderson Field and nearby carriers repeatedly attacked Japanese ships, inflicting heavy losses.
The U.S. fleet was larger and more prepared than Japanese intelligence had predicted.
2. Loss of Key Battleships and Cruisers
During the battle, the Japanese lost key warships, including the battleship Hiei and multiple cruisers.
The loss of these heavily armed ships meant the Japanese could no longer provide sufficient firepower to neutralize American forces.
Japanese convoys carrying reinforcements were also attacked, reducing their ability to sustain a prolonged fight.
3. Fear of U.S. Carrier and Land-Based Airpower
Even though the Japanese had a formidable surface fleet, they feared U.S. carrier-based and land-based aircraft.
Daylight operations were extremely dangerous for Japanese ships due to American aircraft stationed at Henderson Field.
The failure to destroy Henderson Field meant that any Japanese attack risked devastating air counterattacks.
4. Supply and Logistical Issues
The Japanese struggled with logistics and resupply. Their supply lines to Guadalcanal were constantly harassed by U.S. submarines, aircraft, and surface ships.
Japanese supply efforts relied on risky “Tokyo Express” night runs, which were inefficient and left troops poorly supplied.
Without secure supply lines and reinforcements, a major attack was unsustainable.
5. Strategic Shift Toward Defensive Operations
By late 1942, Japanese high command began shifting from offensive to defensive operations in the Pacific.
The defeat at Midway (June 1942) had already weakened their ability to launch large-scale offensives.
After Guadalcanal, Japan recognized the growing strength of U.S. forces and focused on holding key territories rather than expanding further.